Analyst: Historical average drawdown in Bitcoin bull markets is 14.39%. If further pullback occurs, $74,500 could become a key reference level.

On October 9: CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D stated that the average drawdown level of BTC during bull market cycles can serve as a reference for the current price correction. Data indicates that the average drawdown across the previous five bull market cycles was 14.39%, whereas the drawdown for the 2022–2025 cycle has been relatively mild at approximately 7.58%.

Bitcoin recently retreated from its peak of $87,027 on October 5 to a low of $80,404 on October 9, marking a decline of approximately 7.61%. This aligns with the average of the most recent cycle but remains below the historical overall average. If calculated using the historical average drawdown of 14.39%, the corresponding potential pullback reference level would be approximately $74,500.

Analysis suggests that given the smaller drawdown magnitude in recent cycles, investors may consider gradually accumulating positions near $80,000. If the price further dips into the $74,000–$75,000 range, investors could consider increasing their buying volume.