A new account on a prediction market buys into the upcoming Pump.fun airdrop.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Will Pump.fun conduct an airdrop this year?" is currently 12.5%. A new account bought "Yes" with $2.3k at an average probability of 16.4%.

On July 9, 2025, when the official announcement of the PUMP token sale was made, it stated that the airdrop was "coming soon." Three days later, the PUMP public sale sold out in 12 minutes, raising approximately $600m; together with about $720m in private sales, the total scale was approximately $1.32b. However, co-founder Alon Cohen subsequently stated that the airdrop would not happen "in the near term," and the official side has since not provided a date, snapshot rules, or claim conditions.

Since then, the "community value return method" chosen by Pump.fun has mainly been buyback and burn, rather than token distribution. The official token page shows that, as of the latest disclosure, the platform has cumulatively spent about $463.5m to buy back and burn 167.91b PUMP, equivalent to offsetting about 16.8% of the total supply.

The community has recently resumed discussion of the airdrop, mainly because Pump.fun needs to face competition from other token issuance platforms for users. Related views hold that allowing early users to hold PUMP can link the platform's trading volume, fees, buybacks, and token price.