The Trump administration has shifted to a long-term economic war against Iran, with expectations of a quick victory falling through, and the oil blockade has not yet completely cut off revenue.

October 9: According to The Washington Post, the Trump administration is reassessing the timeline for economic pressure on Iran. As intensified sanctions and port blockades have yet to force Tehran to accept U.S. negotiation conditions, Washington is gradually accepting that this campaign may last for months or even longer, with the "economic exile campaign" against Iran shifting from seeking short-term results to a long-term war of attrition.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent had previously predicted that Iranian airlines would be forced to halt international operations by the end of September, but that goal has not yet been achieved. Although the U.S. blockade has sharply compressed Iran's new oil exports, Iran is still selling crude oil inventories shipped out earlier. Reuters, citing relevant data, said about 20 million barrels of Iranian crude remain outside the blockaded area; Kpler data shows Iran can still transport about 250,000 barrels of oil per day abroad by land.

In the next phase, the United States will continue to expand strikes on Iranian banks, airlines, oil transport vessels, and intermediary networks, and pressure foreign financial institutions by warning that transactions with Iran may face secondary sanctions. The United States is also trying to restrict Iran's use of shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers, and third-country trade to evade sanctions.

However, economic pressure has not yet translated into Iranian concessions on core issues such as its nuclear program. Tehran still demands that the United States lift the port blockade, ease oil sanctions, and release frozen assets. The current judgment of the U.S. government is that as long as Iran's oil revenue and international financial channels continue to be compressed, time will gradually shift to the U.S. side, but a long-term blockade also means higher military investment, shipping risks, and energy market costs.