HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin Direction Awaits CPI Data, $81,000 Support May Face Initial Test

On October 14, Bitcoin has retraced from around $86,000 in early October and has been consolidating in the $81,000 to $84,000 range over recent days, coinciding with a strengthening US dollar and sustained high US Treasury yields. In response, Cloud, Chief Analyst at Huobi HTX, believes it is more probable that the consolidation range will break downward.

The September ISM Services Prices Paid index rose to 74.0, its highest since July 2022, while the University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations for October rebounded to 4.7%. With the prices component and inflation expectations rising simultaneously, there is a high probability that Thursday’s CPI will exceed expectations. If this occurs, year-end rate hike pricing will be further reinforced, and the $81,000 lower support will be tested first; only if the CPI misses expectations will the breakout above the $84,000 resistance prove sustainable.

The recent continuous decline in semiconductor stocks is mainly due to the intra-sector repricing of AI capital expenditure pacing and hardware profit expectations, representing an industry alpha event. By comparison, Bitcoin’s drawdown has been significantly smaller, indicating that its current pricing anchor is more oriented toward macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening as their driving forces diverge. However, this divergence is only temporary. Once the US dollar and long-end rates resume dominating pricing, the correlation will quickly strengthen, making Thursday evening’s CPI release the nearest testing ground.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it amount to an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.