IEA Warns Global Diesel Supply Tightness Will Continue Into Next Year, Slow Middle East Export Recovery Drags on Market

On October 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that despite the recent recovery in crude oil shipping, the rebound in Middle Eastern refined product exports remains sluggish. Global diesel supply is projected to stay tight for much of next year. The IEA noted that global diesel supply contracted by 1.7 million barrels per day in the third quarter of this year, mainly due to transit restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for petroleum and refined product shipping triggered by the Iran war—while Russia, a major global exporter of refined products, was forced to curtail output following Ukrainian strikes on its refineries.

According to IEA data, global diesel exports averaged 4.7 million barrels per day during the first nine months of 2026, down 10% year-on-year. Notably, combined net diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia in September fell by over 60%. The IEA emphasized that the recent recovery in crude shipments has not coincided with a parallel recovery in diesel supply, as refinery operations, refined product export capacity, and regional logistics remain impacted by geopolitical tensions. (Jin10)