Analysts Respond to Claims That a 20% US Stock Market Correction Would Cause BTC to Plunge to $10,000: Predictions Are Too Extreme and Lack Historical Basis

On October 17, addressing recent community views that a 20% pullback in US stocks would trigger Bitcoin plummeting to $10,000, crypto analyst Darkfost published an analysis pointing out that if Bitcoin were to drop to $10,000, it would represent a decline of approximately 87% from its current price and a drawdown of roughly 92% from its historical high. Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced a maximum drawdown exceeding 92% once, in 2011; the maximum drawdowns in 2015, 2019, 2022, and 2026 were 82.5%, 82.6%, 74.4%, and 54.2%, respectively.

Darkfost further noted that when the S&P 500 index corrected by approximately 19.53%, Bitcoin fell roughly 80% in 2018, but during the S&P 500's similar correction of over 19% in April 2025, Bitcoin only declined by about 22%; therefore, directly linking a 20% US equity market correction to Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 lacks sufficient historical data support.