HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin Likely to Continue Ranging Before Rate Decision, $80,000 Lower Bound May Be Tested First

On October 21, Bitcoin has been confined to the $80,000–$84,000 range for nearly two weeks. According to Cloud, Chief Analyst at Huobi HTX, this dynamic is essentially driven by two offsetting forces: continuous two-week net outflows from ETFs, alongside sustained draining of exchange reserves as long-term holders simply take mild profits. In the week preceding the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, Bitcoin will likely continue consolidating within this range. With the CME market only pricing in a 16% probability for an October rate hike while economists widely view the odds as roughly 50-50, this gap between market pricing and divergent forecasts will deter capital from betting early.

If a directional bet must be made in advance, a downside test is slightly more probable: funding rates remain elevated and options skew continues to lean toward puts, indicating that longs have not yet been fully cleared and demand for downside protection persists. However, the $80,000 level has repeatedly served as effective support over the past month, making a downward breakout more likely to be a false move.

Confirmation signals for a breakout fall into two sets: a bullish break requires a daily close above $84,200, cumulative ETF net inflows exceeding $500 million over three consecutive days, and funding rates remaining below 15%; a bearish breakdown requires losing the $79,800 level, weekly ETF outflows again exceeding $500 million, and exchange reserves shifting to net inflows. The ultimate directional catalyst remains the interest rate decision announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing Time, coupled with the nearly 89% market pricing in for a December rate hike.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it amount to an offer, invitation, or recommendation regarding any investment products.