Weekly Preview | US Midterm Elections, Nonfarm Payrolls and Apple Earnings Incoming; Bitway (BTW) to Unlock Over $100 Million in Tokens

Key events preview:

• Bitway (BTW) will unlock approximately 101 million tokens at 4:00 p.m. Beijing time on November 2, about 3.37% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $114 million;
• The US holds midterm elections on November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election. The market widely expects Democrats may win control of the House, but Senate control remains highly uncertain;
• Apple will report earnings after the US market close on November 2, with the market expecting share price volatility at twice the historical average;
• Kite (KITE) will unlock approximately 640 million tokens at 9:00 p.m. Beijing time on November 3, about 17.42% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $75.6 million;
• US October nonfarm payrolls data will be released at 21:30 on November 6;
• The Zcash NU7 upgrade will go live on mainnet on November 5.

November 2

Policy and Regulation:

Sixth meeting of Hong Kong's Fintech Project Implementation Coordination Group: Fintech Week 2026 to be held November 2–6

Christopher Hui, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury of Hong Kong, chaired the sixth meeting of the Fintech Project Implementation Coordination Group, at which views were exchanged on various fintech areas, including the proposed regulatory regime for virtual asset trading, custody, advisory and management services. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported on the Ensemble project and the quantum readiness of Hong Kong's banking sector. In addition, Hong Kong Fintech Week 2026, themed "Fintech hub connecting the world to build the future," will be held jointly with the StartmeupHK Festival from November 2 to 6, with the main forum taking place at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre on November 2–3.

Special Focus:

North America switches to standard time; from November 2, US stock market opens at 22:30

North America switched to standard time (winter time) from 2:00 a.m. local time on November 1 (2:00 p.m. Beijing time on November 1). Trading hours for US and Canadian financial markets and the release times of economic data will be one hour later than during daylight saving time. Starting Monday, November 2, international gold and silver and US crude oil will open at 7:00 Beijing time, and US stocks will open at 22:30 Beijing time. Investors are advised to take note.

Project Updates:

Canton Network-based tokenized securities trading platform TSV plans to begin trading CNTN tokenized shares as early as November 2

TSV LLC, a tokenized stock trading platform built on the Canton Network, plans to begin trading tokenized shares of Canton Strategic Holdings (CNTN) as early as November 2. The company uses an issuer-led tokenization model and has engaged SEC-registered on-chain transfer agent Fairmint to issue the tokens and maintain official ownership records, thereby avoiding the 30-day issuer objection period required for third-party tokenization. The move could allow TSV to beat the joint platform of OKX and ICE (the parent company of the NYSE) in completing the first tokenized US stock trade under the US SEC's "innovation exemption" framework.

NEAR launches vote on proposal to cut maximum annual issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6%, voting closes November 2

NEAR's governance body House of Stake has launched a vote on proposal HSP-029, which would linearly reduce NEAR's maximum annual token issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months after a buffer period of about 90 days. According to the proposal, about 11.8 million fewer NEAR would be issued over the next two years, and about 66.1 million fewer over six years, reducing supply by about 4.36% compared with current policy; the total staking yield is expected to fall from 5.27% to 3.37%. The proposal requires supermajority support and must be adopted by validators through a network upgrade before taking effect. Voting closes on November 2, 2026.

Akash launches governance vote on proposal to migrate the network from Cosmos to Solana, voting ends at 23:02 on November 2

According to an official announcement from Akash Network, the decentralized cloud computing network Akash has launched governance proposal No. 346, which would migrate the network from its Cosmos sovereign chain akashnet-2 to the Solana mainnet. Voting began at 23:02 Beijing time on October 26 and will end at 23:02 on November 2; yes votes currently account for about 98.29%.

According to the proposal, if it passes and the audits of the token and migration portal are completed (expected to take 2 to 3 weeks), AKT will launch on Solana as an SPL token with a 1:1 migration and the same ticker retained; the one-way migration portal will be open for 2 years, and staked AKT must first be unstaked (21 days) before it can be migrated. The proposal sets no switchover date, and the actual migration requires a separate switchover proposal. Akash said Solana was chosen mainly for reasons including operating costs under load, the absence of a single operator, and the concentration of the DePIN ecosystem.

Initia: Initia L1 and rollups plan to resume operations on November 2

Initia posted on X that Initia L1 and rollups plan to resume operations on Monday, November 2, 2026. The chain upgrade will apply an independently audited MoveVM patch to isolate the attacker's remaining counterfeit balances and enable additional security measures without rolling back transaction history. Support for AUSD0, USDC.n and WETH will be fully restored before the restart, and users need take no action.

To protect users and liquidity providers, Initia DEX will be paused for a short window, during which designated accounts will rebalance pools to market prices; profits generated from the rebalancing will be returned to affected liquidity providers. Bridges and exchanges are expected to resume transfers after network monitoring, with withdrawal times for LayerZero OFT WETH and AUSD0 set at 24 hours. Initia will provide further details after the network is fully live on Monday.

Polymarket releases Protocol V2, launch date pushed back from November 2 to November 9

Rajath Alex, protocol lead at Polymarket, announced on X that Polymarket has launched Polymarket Protocol V2, a next-generation prediction market smart contract system that restructures the underlying architecture of the existing protocol. The team said the existing system was built on Gnosis's 2019 Conditional Tokens Framework, and that as market types and features kept increasing, components such as adapters and additional contracts had to be layered on, driving up system complexity.

Protocol V2 will use a modular architecture with unified ERC-1155 position tokens, pUSD collateral, and exchanges and routers corresponding to each market type, and will support market types including Binary, Atomic Neg-risk, Incremental Neg-risk and Combinatorial. The new protocol also introduces OracleAggregator, which can connect to different settlement sources such as UMA and Chainlink, and provides cross-chain support for positions, collateral and settlement results for future multi-chain expansion.

Protocol V2's code has been audited by firms including Cantina, Certora, Quantstamp, SigmaPrime, Zellic and Pashov, and has passed Certora formal verification. The team planned to launch some test markets between October 5 and 30 and tentatively intended to switch new markets to V2 starting November 2. Polymarket has also launched Data API V2 to support the new protocol and on-chain data indexing.

To avoid the week of the US midterm elections, the release date of Protocol V2 was postponed from November 2 to November 9. The final schedule and launch plan, including specific timing and the migration order for each market, will be announced in the coming days; users need take no action for now.

Web3 game developer Unagi enters judicial liquidation in France: assets can be acquired individually, bid deadline November 2

Web3 game developer Unagi tweeted that the company has entered a court-ordered judicial liquidation procedure in France, and all assets will be publicly sold under the supervision of a court-appointed liquidator. Unagi's products include Persona Journey, Ultimate Champions and Records. The assets for sale include: the intellectual property of Persona Journey, NFT contracts and creator royalty rights, the 957 Persona NFTs in the treasury, community accounts and related AI products; the UNA token and its contract; the fantasy football and basketball game Ultimate Champions and its NFT card economy; the white-label fantasy sports platform; the completed but unreleased prediction game Fantasy Brainz; and Records, the AI user-generated content platform launched in March this year. Each asset can be acquired individually, with a bid deadline of November 2.

DeFi Development's preferred stock CHAD annual dividend rate to rise to 14% on November 2

SOL treasury company DeFi Development Corp. announced that the annual dividend rate on its preferred stock CHAD will be raised from 13% to 14%, effective November 2. On the basis disclosed by the company, annual dividend income per share will increase by about 7.7%; once declared, dividends are paid every business day.

Token Unlocks:

Bitway (BTW) will unlock approximately 101 million tokens at 4:00 p.m. Beijing time on November 2, about 3.37% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $114 million

Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens on November 2 Beijing time, worth approximately $7.7 million

November 3

Special Focus:

US midterm elections on November 3

The US holds midterm elections on November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election (including two special elections in Florida and Ohio). Republicans hold 218 House seats to 214 and 53 Senate seats to 47; Democrats need a net gain of 3 House seats and 4 Senate seats to flip control; a 50:50 tie would be decided by a casting vote from Vice President Vance. The outcome will determine who controls appropriations, tax bills and personnel confirmations, reshaping the difficulty of advancing fiscal, tariff and industrial subsidy policy. Betting markets currently price the probability of a Democratic "sweep" of both chambers at 67%.

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation said in its analysis that the US midterm elections will have limited impact on US Treasuries, but if Democrats control both the Senate and the House, they could push Treasury yields slightly higher by expanding healthcare spending.

Special Focus:

Apple to report earnings after the US market close on November 2 (Beijing time November 3), with the market expecting share price volatility at twice the historical average

Apple will report earnings after the US market close on November 2, and the options market expects the share price to move by about 4.3% at that time. Based on the October 27 close of $347.10, the at-the-money call and put options expiring November 4 with a strike price of $347.50 are worth about $14.98 combined, corresponding to a share price range of about $332–362. By comparison, Apple's stock moved an average of about 2% on the day after its last eight earnings reports, falling in six of those instances, with the largest drop 7.4% in July this year. The implied move for options expiring November 13 rises further to 5.2%. This means the market has already priced in a relatively high premium for earnings risk; if actual volatility falls short of expectations, buying options could still result in a loss even if the direction of the share price is called correctly, and option buyers can only profit if the share price move is large enough to cover the premium. Note: options quotes are taken from after the US market close on October 27. The 4.3% figure is the implied move reflected in option prices, not a guaranteed range of share price movement.

Exchanges:

Binance expects to generate complete zero-knowledge proof of reserves on November 3

According to a Binance announcement, as of October 31, about 90% of the backfilling of affected assets had been completed, up from the 80% previously disclosed. BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC have all achieved 100% full reserve backing. The remaining roughly 10% of assets not yet fully backfilled are tokens other than the previous top ten, which, given their relatively lower liquidity, may take longer to purchase in full.

Binance said the funds used to top up assets this time came from part of the SAFU fund (expected to be completed within the next 24 hours), part of the futures insurance fund, and Binance's own corporate funds. Binance completed a new proof-of-reserves snapshot at 08:00 (UTC+8) on October 31; because generating zero-knowledge proofs requires substantial computing resources, the complete proof is expected to be generated on November 3 (UTC). Withdrawal services are expected to resume as planned on November 1.

Binance to suspend deposits and withdrawals of old AERO tokens on November 3; opening time for new AERO token deposits and withdrawals to be announced separately

Binance will support the merger of Velodrome Finance (VELODROME) tokens into Aerodrome (AERO) and the AERO contract swap. Binance will stop trading and remove all existing VELODROME spot trading pairs (VELODROME/USDT) at 11:00 (UTC+8) on November 3, 2026, and will automatically cancel all open orders; trading of existing AERO spot pairs will not be affected.

In addition, Binance will suspend deposits and withdrawals of old VELODROME tokens at 11:30 (UTC+8) on November 3, 2026. After the token merger is completed, Binance will no longer support deposits or withdrawals of old VELODROME tokens. Binance will suspend deposits and withdrawals of old AERO tokens at 11:30 (UTC+8) on November 3, 2026. After the contract swap is completed, Binance will separately announce the opening time for deposits and withdrawals of the new AERO tokens.

Token Unlocks:

Kite (KITE) will unlock approximately 640 million tokens at 9:00 p.m. Beijing time on November 3, about 17.42% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $75.6 million

November 4

Exchanges:

Coinbase to launch global trading competition on November 4, with prizes of up to $2 million

Coinbase announced that it will hold its first global trading competition, the Coinbase Champions Cup, from November 4 to 25, with total prizes of up to $2 million; registration is now open. Participants also have a chance to win a trader seat at Coinbase's next offline event. The competition is offered by Coinbase Bermuda Ltd. and is only available to eligible users in designated jurisdictions, with a minimum trading volume requirement of 100 USDC.

Project Updates:

Moonshot AI releases Kimi K3.1 Pro, model weights to be open-sourced before November 4

Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, the first model in the K3.1 series, along with a high-speed version, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, which runs 2 to 3 times faster than the standard version; both models support a 1 million token context. Official data shows that K3.1 Pro scored 65.70% on Terminal-Bench 4.0, higher than GPT-6 Astra's 58.20% and slightly below Claude Opus 5.5's 66.40%; in internal hallucination tests, the hallucination rate for single statements fell from 23.40% in K3 to 8.30%. The new model is already available on Kimi.ai, Kimi Work, Kimi Code and the API, and the full model weights are scheduled to be released before November 4.

Apple: Apple Intelligence to open for testing in China starting November 4, integrated with Alibaba's Qwen

Apple announced that the first batch of Apple Intelligence features is about to launch in China, including live translation, writing tools, visual intelligence, a photo clean-up tool and Genmoji, which will open for testing with the latest iOS developer beta starting November 4 and will be released to Chinese users when iOS 27.3 is officially released in December. In addition, Apple has reached a partnership with Alibaba, so Chinese users can use Qwen directly in Siri, writing tools and visual intelligence. Supported models include the iPhone 16 and later, the iPhone 15 Pro series and iPhone Air. This update does not include next-generation Apple Intelligence features announced at WWDC 2026, such as Siri AI.

HyperLabs applies to redeem 179,700 HYPE, expected to arrive November 4

Hyperliquid development team HyperLabs applied 10 hours ago to unstake 179,706 HYPE ($14.49 million), expected to arrive on the evening of November 4. The move follows the same process as previous team token unlocks: after exiting staking, tokens are first distributed to team members and then traded over the counter through market maker Flowdesk.

XRP Ledger bug fix patch postponed to November 4 as validator support declines

The XRP Ledger's bug fix patch was postponed to take effect in November after validator support at one point fell to 26 out of 35, resetting the countdown to activation. Support has now recovered to 31, but because the two-week countdown must be recalculated, the fix missed the window in which it was originally about to take effect. According to the XRPLWin website, the fix will go live on November 4 at 14:46 UTC. According to the xrpld 3.4.0 release notes, the patch fixes a vulnerability that could allow accounts only permitted to burn issuer tokens to create new tokens under certain conditions, as well as how the lending code determines when a loan is overdue or in default.

Token Unlocks:

Momentum (MMT) will unlock approximately 252 million tokens at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on November 4, about 294.38% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $32.3 million

November 5

Project Updates:

Zcash NU7 upgrade to go live on mainnet on November 5

According to the latest information from the Zcash team and GitHub, the Zcash network upgrade NU7 has completed key deployment preparations and is expected to activate at mainnet block height 3,543,405 around November 5. The proposal submitted by Zcash developer Sean Bowe to set the NU7 mainnet activation height was officially merged into the ZIP specification on October 21. The Zcash Foundation released Zebra 7.0.0 stable, which supports NU7, on October 22, and Zakura released version 1.7.0 supporting the upgrade the same day. NU7 activated on testnet in early October.

Forma mainnet expected to shut down on November 5

Forma, built on Astria and Celestia, tweeted that its mainnet will shut down at block height 34,567,890, expected around November 5. Users have about two weeks to withdraw funds before the chain halts. After the chain halts, the team will take a snapshot and migrate the remaining TIA to Eden. Both chains are EVM-based, so users can use the same wallet address. Modularium will migrate to Ethereum, and NFTs must be claimed manually through a relaunched website and will not be airdropped automatically. Further announcements will be made after the migration is completed.

Slop Cash to launch on Umia on November 5, deployed on Robinhood Chain

On-chain venture capital protocol Umia tweeted that Slop Cash (token SLOP), a funding and incentive platform for open-source software, will launch on Umia on November 5 as its first project, deployed on Robinhood Chain. Slop Cash's co-founder and chief technology officer is Shaw, founder of ai16z. Its pre-bidding will open at 1:00 Beijing time on November 6; official bidding will open at 1:00 on November 8; the auction will end at 1:00 on November 11, with bids made in USDG.

Token Unlocks:

Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 93.75 million tokens on November 5, worth approximately $17.7 million

November 6

Macro Economy:

US October nonfarm payrolls data to be released at 21:30 on November 6

On November 6, US October nonfarm payrolls data will be released. September added only 29,000 jobs, while the market expects an increase of 65,000 in October; the unemployment rate will also be published the same day. This is the most important data release globally this week: the 10-year US Treasury yield ended the week at 4.9%, White House's Hassett said that if inflation stays elevated there would be ample reason to raise rates next time, and a stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a rate hike. The dollar, US Treasuries and gold will move in tandem, and US stocks will swing back and forth between two narratives.

Project Updates:

Monochrome Exchange lists platform token MCR, on-chain withdrawals to open November 6

Multi-asset trading platform Monochrome Exchange tweeted that it has listed its platform token MCR and opened MCR/USDT spot trading. The team said MCR can be used to reduce trading fees and to participate in Launchpad and the upcoming digital IPOs, and is supported by a quarterly buyback and burn program funded by platform profits. During the listing period, MCR can only be traded on the exchange. On-chain withdrawals of all MCR holdings will open on November 6, the same day the IEO lock-up period ends.

November 7

Project Updates:

mETH Protocol to wind down cmETH operations, reward claim window to close November 7

mETH Protocol announced that, to strengthen long-term protocol alignment, it will gradually shut down its liquid staking token cmETH. cmETH's peak TVL once reached about $620 million; new minting has now stopped, and existing positions can continue to be redeemed and bridged across chains. The team said it will complete the final EigenLayer reward distribution before mid-June 2026, and that the claim window for previous campaign rewards will close on November 7, 2026, after which unclaimed rewards will be forfeited; if relevant AVSs or partners hold a TGE in the future that includes retroactive rewards, those will continue to be distributed to eligible users. No user action is required for the mETH staking product.

November 8

Token Unlocks:

Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock approximately 1.67 million tokens at 8:00 a.m. Beijing time on November 8, about 0.30% of the circulating supply, worth approximately $14.7 million

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