Two exchanges have announced shutdowns within three days. Can the Strategy holding 840,000 bitcoins survive this winter?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on July 23, BitMEX, which invented perpetual contracts and has been in operation for over 11 years, announced that it would close its trading platform on September 23. Three days later, BitMart also announced the suspension of new user registrations, deposits, and new orders, and will cease operations entirely in January 2027.

Neither platform has announced insolvency. However, in an environment where cryptocurrency prices are falling, retail traders are exiting, and trading volumes are concentrating on major platforms, small exchanges are finding it increasingly difficult to sustain their business through new user acquisition and trading fees.

Following the exit of these exchanges, the market's attention has shifted back to the largest Bitcoin leverage player in this cycle, Strategy. Currently, the probability of "Strategy filing for bankruptcy this year" is only 4%. On July 20, Strategy disclosed that it sold approximately 2.732 million shares of MSTR common stock within a week, raising $263.5 million without purchasing Bitcoin during the same period, maintaining a holding of 843,775 coins. Reports on July 27 indicated that Strategy had suspended its Bitcoin purchases for four consecutive weeks, marking the longest halt in nearly two years.

Another related market event, the probability of "Strategy being delisted from the MSCI index this year," is 33%: MSCI has proposed excluding companies where digital assets account for more than 50% of total assets from global stock indexes, citing that such companies may behave more like investment funds. Strategy is increasingly resembling a Bitcoin investment vehicle operating through a publicly traded company shell, as the official website directly defines MSTR as a security providing "leveraged Bitcoin exposure."

However, in January of this year, MSCI temporarily abandoned the unified exclusion plan, allowing existing companies to remain in the index. Still, it froze the upward adjustment in weight brought by the addition of new shares and initiated a broader review of "non-operational companies." As of today, MSCI has not released new consultation papers, decision criteria, or implementation schedules. Strategy does have operational activities: with software revenue in the first quarter reaching $124.3 million, an 11.9% year-on-year increase, and cloud subscription revenue growing by 58.7%. It still maintains real customers, R&D activities, and ongoing revenue.