The Fed's Decision Looms as Oil Price Skyrockets Past $100 in a Week and Then Plunges, Rate-Savvy Money Predicts Fed to Hold Steady in July
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 4 savvy investors have placed bets on "Will the Federal Reserve keep the upper limit of the federal funds rate unchanged after the July 2026 meeting?" with a total of $394.1k wagered on "Yes," averaging a buy-in probability of 75.2%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 71.0%.
ScottyNooo invested $156k, with the top-relevant category being Fed Rate, netting $299k in profits. Out of 198 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 87/198 (44%), with 10 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $259k.
sorcerer.00 invested $96.4k, with the top-relevant category being Fed Rate, netting $53.2k in profits. Out of 121 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 94/121 (78%), with 6 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $212, making this investment 453.8 times the median.
0x6302cdef invested $33.9k, with the top-relevant category being Macro Economy, netting $25.5k in profits. Out of 24 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 16/24 (67%), with 2 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95.
Wickier invested $107k, with the top-relevant category being Politics, netting $768k in profits. Out of 714 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 400/714 (56%), with 241 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $640, making this investment 167.7 times the median.
The FOMC meeting, spanning two days, commenced on July 28th, with the rate decision set to be announced on the afternoon of the 29th ET. The current federal funds rate target range is 3.50%~3.75%. On the 27th, Reuters reported that most major brokerages still expect the Fed to hold steady at this meeting. Both Bank of America and Deutsche Bank have pegged July for rate maintenance, with the earliest possible rate hike expected to start in September. Following the US-Iran pause in direct attacks, Brent crude oil retreated from last week's high above $100 to $88.36, marking an 8.7% single-day decline; the drop in energy prices eased recent inflation pressures and diminished the immediate need for a Fed rate hike.
CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July has risen from 16% a week ago to 36.3%, propelling the US dollar index to a one-month high. The rate options market has seen increased hedging trades to guard against a significant yield increase. On the 27th, Trump once again called for a rate cut by the Fed, stating that the US should have the lowest rates globally. The market currently leans towards maintaining the 3.50%~3.75% range as the primary expectation while also monitoring the meeting statement for references to energy inflation and the likelihood of a September rate hike.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at certain points after opening positions.
Accounts:
0xbacd00c9080a82ded56f504ee8810af732b0ab35
0xeb6f0a13ea8c5a7a0514c25495adbe815c1025f0
0x6302cdefa498e7174dd0fcd6b06652a38eae7917
0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df
Total Investment: $394.1k
---------------------------------
To see tomorrow today, follow @PolyBeatsEN on Twitter.