Tesla Evaluating Split of China Business, Smart Money Predicts SpaceX Merger with Tesla Within the Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money has placed a $2,700 bet on "Will the merger of Tesla and SpaceX be officially announced before December 31, 2026?" with an average buying probability of 20.9%. The current probability of "Yes" is 19.5%.

Address 0xf192501a has placed a $2,700 bet. With 119 settled trades, the total profit is $15,200. This trade is 11.7 times the median of its historical trades.

The Wall Street Journal reported today, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Tesla executives have been asked to prepare for the possibility of operating the China business independently. Advisors to the company are studying spinoff or sale options. Executives have also discussed setting up a separate sales entity for the export business from the Shanghai factory and further separating the office system of the China team from other business units. The related plans currently have no defined structure or timetable.

The Chinese market accounts for about 18% of Tesla's global sales in the first half of the year. The Shanghai Gigafactory has an annual production capacity of over 950,000 vehicles, handling the production and overseas exports of Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla also operates a Megapack energy storage facility in Shanghai. The Shanghai factory sold and exported 89,091 vehicles in June, a 24.4% year-on-year growth.

On the 22nd, Musk stated that the scope of cooperation between Tesla and SpaceX is expanding, and any company-level integration requires due process. The two parties are currently collaborating on battery, manufacturing technology, and AI chip project Terafab. Tesla's quarterly filing shows that the company invested $2 billion in the first half of the year to purchase SpaceX common stock.

Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, it is inferred that the trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Address:
0xf192501abae4c453cc15ddbe9543ed11e99a6ee2

Total Investment: $2,700
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