Bitunix Analyst: Cooling Inflation Data Hasn't Altered the True Pressure Point for Global Assets

July 31st. In June, the US PCE price index unexpectedly turned negative, with the core PCE monthly increase reaching only 0.1%. The GDP annualized growth rate also fell below market expectations, seemingly providing evidence of inflation cooling and economic slowdown. However, a closer look at the GDP structure reveals that private final demand, consumption, and AI-related business investment remain strong, indicating that the economic momentum has not significantly deteriorated. This also explains why the market did not fully bet on easing in response to the weaker data but instead focused on policy credibility and global funding costs.

Of particular note, the Japanese government is suspected of conducting exchange rate intervention in coordination with the US, while South Korea simultaneously reported US dollar selling intervention. Although the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, some committee members advocated for a rate hike. In addition, three members of the Bank of England expressed support for a rate hike, showing that central banks around the world, in the face of inflation and exchange rate pressures, still maintain a cautious or even hawkish stance on monetary policy. This indicates that the global liquidity environment has not fundamentally changed due to the US single-month inflation data cooling but has instead tightened financial conditions in various forms.

On the other hand, the technology industry fundamentals remain robust. Amazon's AWS revenue exceeded expectations, Oracle continued to expand its collaboration with Google, and OpenAI once again lowered model prices. The AI competition has gradually shifted from model capabilities to cost efficiency and enterprise application penetration. In contrast, Apple's performance in the Chinese market and service business reflects a weak consumer demand, indicating that there is still differentiation in end-user consumption. In the future, the valuation gap between beneficiaries of AI infrastructure development and end-device hardware manufacturers may further widen.

Looking ahead, what the market truly needs to observe is not only whether the US will cut or raise interest rates but whether major central banks worldwide will synchronously maintain a relatively tight financial environment through interest rate, exchange rate intervention, and policy communication. If expectations for a future rate hike in Japan continue to rise, and Asian central banks continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market, global arbitrage capital flows and US dollar liquidity may continue to adjust. AI investments and corporate profits will remain key fundamentals supporting risk assets, and the tug-of-war between these two forces is expected to keep market volatility relatively high in the third quarter.