「Whale Discovery」 Anticipates Democratic Takeover of Congress, Polymarket Trader Shorts $6.5 Million S&P, Storage Stocks

July 31st, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, Polymarket trader "BearKingdom" is simultaneously betting on the U.S. political shift and a pullback in risk assets: he is betting on the Democratic Party to control Congress after the 2026 midterm elections, the "CLARITY Act" not being enacted within the year, and shorting the S&P 500, SK Hynix, and Longi Green on Hyperliquid, with a total notional value of approximately $6.492 million.

On the Polymarket side, BearKingdom currently holds 6 positions, with a total investment of approximately $164,100, a current value of approximately $193,800, and an unrealized profit of approximately $29,700.

Among them, he has placed 3 Yes positions betting on the Democratic Party controlling Congress, with a total investment of approximately $72,500, a current value of approximately $79,200:

- "Democratic Party controls the House" Yes: 47,300 shares, valued at approximately $40,400;

- "Democratic Party controls the Senate" Yes: 79,900 shares, valued at approximately $34,800;

- "Democratic Party controls both chambers simultaneously" Yes: 9,224 shares, valued at approximately $4,013.

His largest prediction position is betting that the "CLARITY Act" will not be signed into law in 2026. The trader holds 153,500 No shares, with a cost of approximately $84,600, a current value of approximately $106,700, and an unrealized profit of approximately $22,100.

On-chain data shows that the wallet starting with 0x48d corresponding to the Hyperliquid external wallet is linked to the Polymarket account "BearKingdom" and its proxy wallet starting with 0xabe.

On the Hyperliquid side, the trader currently holds three short positions, with a total value of approximately $6.492 million and a net unrealized loss of approximately $148,300:

- S&P 500: 6x isolated short position of approximately $3.244 million, average price of $6,757.58, with an unrealized loss of approximately $307,500;

- SK Hynix: 2x isolated short position of approximately $2.721 million, average price of $1,266.05, with an unrealized profit of approximately $191,000;

- Canaan Inc.: 2x Leveraged Short Position of approximately $527,100, average price of $7.075, with a floating loss of approximately $31,800.

In addition, it has placed 88 orders for partial closing long positions for all 70,000 CXMT short positions, with prices ranging from $6 to $6.6679, a weighted average order price of around $6.2456, planning to take profit in batches after the price falls.

The activities of BearKingdom on both ends of the trade are not related events, but their positions are rather consistent: the prediction market is betting on the Democratic Party regaining control of Congress and a delay in crypto regulation, while the trading market is betting on pressure on the overall stock market and storage stocks at high levels.