Deutsche Bank Shows Strong Support for SpaceX Ahead of First Earnings Report: Space and Starlink Business Can Justify Current Valuation, AI Business's "Zero Pricing" Seen as Overly Punitive

August 4th, SpaceX is about to release its first earnings report after going public today after market close. According to BIT (bit.com) market data, its stock price has plunged from its 52-week high of $201.80 to nearly $115. Deutsche Bank has maintained a "Buy" rating on SPCX with a target price of $255 on the eve of the earnings report, and highlighted in a valuation stress test that the space business (referencing Blue Origin's recent $130 billion external valuation, SpaceX's launch frequency and Starship progress should receive a 3 to 5 times premium, corresponding to $390 billion to $650 billion) and the Starlink business (corresponding to an EV/EBITDA valuation range of $748 billion to $956 billion by 2027) together totaling a median of about $1.35 trillion, roughly in line with the current market cap of about $1.4 trillion—indicating that the market is pricing its AI business close to zero. Deutsche Bank explicitly stated that this is overly punitive and does not align with the significant potential of the AI business.

JPMorgan Chase had previously issued an "Overweight" rating on SPCX with a target price of $225, expecting SpaceX's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 91% from 2025 to 2030, expanding from $19 billion to $470 billion.

Deutsche Bank expects SpaceX's second-quarter revenue to be $6.71 billion, a 64% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.1 billion. The AI business is expected to be the biggest driver, with revenue expected to double to $1.876 billion QoQ, mainly benefiting from a new cloud services agreement signed with Anthropic; Starlink business broadband subscribers are expected to reach 12.5 million by the end of the quarter, with revenue growing over 50% YoY to nearly $4 billion.

The current major tactical pressure comes from the unlocking sell-off, with the first batch of about 9.12 billion shares set to be unlocked from August 6th, followed by approximately 3 billion shares unlocking every 15 to 20 days thereafter, and another approximately 1.3 billion shares to be released at the time of the third-quarter earnings report. Deutsche Bank believes that the stock price is expected to stabilize after the unlocking period, and a positive catalyst could emerge if a large-scale government or sovereign AI cooperation agreement is reached by then.

The four key focuses of SpaceX's earnings report include the follow-up launch pace of Starship and whether the second-stage tower recovery can be achieved, the selection of the U.S. ground mobile network roadmap, AI business variables (Grok iteration, Cursor integration, reports of Google only using SpaceX's computing power as a transitional bridge, progress in U.S. government cooperation negotiations), and Musk's cautious statement on merger matters during the Tesla earnings call.