US and Iran Signal Progress on Hormuz Talks, Market Bets on Energy Channel Restart Boosting Risk Assets

August 5th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the US and Iran may reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as Wednesday. The market's expectations for energy transportation resuming have increased, leading to gains in the US and Asian markets.

Yellen stated in an interview that if an agreement is reached, the goal will be to ensure "freedom of navigation" in the Strait of Hormuz. When asked whether Iran might charge fees for vessels passing through the strait, she responded, "This will be a question of freedom of navigation." Before the war broke out, about 20% of global oil transportation passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US Central Command stated that the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and all commercial vessels can pass through.

However, there is still uncertainty in US-Iran relations. According to reports, Iran has accused the Trump administration of possibly "lighting the fuse of the third world war," as the US had previously warned Iran that the current situation is the "last chance" to reach an agreement.

In the market, investors are also paying attention to the earnings reports of technology companies and AI capital expenditures.

SpaceX's first earnings report after going public showed that the company's second-quarter revenue exceeded expectations. Still, a significant increase in capital expenditures raised market concerns, causing the stock price to drop by about 7% in after-hours trading. The company's second-quarter capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion, with around $16 billion used for AI computing infrastructure.

AMD's second-quarter performance also surpassed market expectations, but capital expenditures rose to $808 million, a significant increase from $282 million in the same period last year, causing the stock price to decline in after-hours trading.

Analysts believe that as AI infrastructure investment enters an accelerated phase, the market is reevaluating whether the large-scale capital investment of tech giants can quickly translate into revenue growth. In addition, Paramount Skydance raised its full-year profit guidance due to revenue performance exceeding Wall Street's expectations and growth in its streaming business.