Data Confirms "Altseason is Dead": Only 4% Outperform Bitcoin Holding, with 30% Being Platform Tokens

August 5th, Blockworks Research / Messari laid out the harsh reality of meme coin investment in the latest report. Data shows that among 1,972 tokens that had a circulating market cap above $50 million between 2020 and 2025, only about 4.1% eventually outperformed Bitcoin, equivalent to roughly 1 out of every 24 tokens that entered investors' radar being able to beat a BTC passive holding strategy.

This report, titled One in Twenty-Four: The Harsh Realities of Liquid Token Investing, used a sample that included all tokens that had ever reached a $50 million circulating market cap, with data sourced from CoinGecko and Blockworks Research, including projects that have since died or been delisted.

The report reveals that if the "first touch to $50 million market cap month-end price" is taken as the entry price and then observing whether the token fell to 10% or below of that entry price, it is found that the decline rate of newly issued tokens in recent years has significantly accelerated. By about 30 months in the 2024 batch, nearly 90% of the tokens had dropped by over 90% from their entry price; the 2021, 2022, and 2023 batches also show a similar downward trajectory.

The median returns for token batches by year are even more "heartbreaking." As of June 2026, the median return for the 2020 batch was -94%, with only a 2% outperformance of BTC; the median returns for the 2021 and 2022 batches were both -99%; 2023 was -97%; and 2024 was -98%. The 2025 batch is currently at -88%, with a 19% outperformance of BTC, but the report specifically notes that this batch is still in its early stages, and its performance over a full cycle is yet to be seen.

It is worth noting that the performance of well-established tokens that entered the market before 2020 is relatively unique. The report's charts show that this group of "survivors" has a median return of about -58% since entry, with a 12% outperformance of BTC, significantly better than most new token batches post-2020.

A few winners also show high concentration. The report's charts show that among 22 tokens with at least 24 months of history and outperforming BTC, exchange platform tokens account for 32%; whereas in the corresponding sample of 1,305 tokens, platform tokens only represent 2%.