Barça Still Looking to Push Transfer, New Account to Buy Alba to Stay at Atlético

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has placed a $2,000 bet on "Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?", with an average buy-in probability of 62.2% and the current "Yes" probability at 51.7%.

Per market rules, if Alvarez officially joins a new team by 11:59 PM ET on September 1, 2026, the market will settle to that corresponding team; if he does not join a new team by the deadline, "Atletico Madrid" will settle as "Yes".

On July 23, Football España reported that Atletico's CEO Miguel Angel Gil Marin publicly stated that the club had rejected a €100m bid from Barcelona, and even if the bid were to increase to €150m or €200m, the answer would remain the same. On August 8, AS reported that Simeone mentioned Alvarez again in a pre-match press conference, stating that the situation is very clear, the club is happy with him, and they hope to continue helping him improve; AS also mentioned that Alvarez is expected to return to training on August 10 and Simeone has arranged training in preparation for him to play in the La Liga opener against Malaga on August 19.

The transfer pressure still mainly comes from Barcelona. On August 6, Barca Universal cited ElDesmarque, stating that Alvarez plans to communicate face-to-face with Simeone after returning to Atletico's training, expressing his desire to leave and join Barcelona; the report also mentioned that Barca is willing to slightly increase the offer when conditions are right. Currently, Barcelona is at around 36%, Arsenal at around 11%, indicating that the market still sees the "departure" risk mainly focused on Barcelona, followed by Premier League buyers.

Account:
0x9f7b777032430c58fd69514dcba8f17141e33c30

Total Investment: $2.0k
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