Initiate the program at the last minute before the recess, with the new account predicting the Clarity Act to become law within the year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 2 new accounts have placed a $10.4 thousand bet on the "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026" outcome, with an average buy-in probability of 18.3%. The current probability for this outcome is 20.5%.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset market, determining when digital tokens are securities or commodities and delineating regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC. H.R. 3633 has passed the House, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced the amended text in May with a 15-9 vote. The Act is set to be signed into law in 2026, requiring Senate deliberation and approval, followed by reconciliation between the House and Senate on the same text before being sent to President Trump for signing.

The Senate did not vote on the CLARITY Act before the summer recess. Senator John Thune initiated cloture on H.R. 3633 in the early hours of August 8, scheduling the first procedural vote for September 15 at 2:15 pm. This procedure requires 60 votes and, if successful, will limit debate on the cloture motion. Further amendments to the bill and a final vote are still pending in the Senate.

Negotiations are ongoing on government ethics restrictions, illicit finance rules, stablecoin incentives, and the integration of the Senate Agriculture Committee text. With 53 Republican Senate seats, Democratic support is required for the procedural vote on September 15. The Senate is expected to have around 3 weeks to handle legislation after resuming session, with a focus then shifting to the mid-term elections in November. White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Witt has begun urging Democrats to make a decision before the September vote.

Accounts:
0x5aad5eb96989a5dad27206eee65ff158b35f9674;
0x50308865da17ffcd1b6ae6a2e5f9271237421404.
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