Gold Price Up for Third Straight Day, Nearing $4,500; CPI Hits Milestone This Month

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the question "Will gold break $4,600 in August?" currently has a "Yes" probability of 42.1%.

Spot gold rose to a high of $4,432.74 per ounce on August 11, marking a third consecutive day of gains and reaching the highest level since June 5. The price of gold needs to rise by about 1.52% to reach $4,500. IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that this round of gains was driven by chasing funds, speculative account short covering, and a resurgence of safe-haven flows.

The U.S. will release the July CPI on August 12. The market expects a 0.1% increase in the overall CPI on a month-over-month basis and a 0.2% increase in the core CPI. The recent rise in oil prices has increased the risk of hotter-than-expected inflation data. A continuation of cooling inflation could weaken expectations of Fed rate hikes and provide further support for gold. Data exceeding expectations could drive the dollar and U.S. bond yields higher, increasing short-term volatility in gold prices.

In July, U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, causing spot gold to rise by 2.3% in a single day after the data was released, with a cumulative weekly gain of over 7%. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings by nearly 20 tons in July. Global physical gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $3 billion in the same month, with fund holdings increasing by 23 tons to 4,068 tons. Pepperstone's Head of Research, Chris Weston, stated that gold is testing the $4,500 technical area.
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