CPI to Set Stage for September Fed Meeting Tonight, Rate Smart Money Predicts Fed to Hold Fire

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, two savvy investors have put in $240.3k on the outcome "Will the Fed maintain the interest rate ceiling after the September 2026 meeting?" with an average buy-in probability of 52.5%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 60.5%.

mr.ozi has invested $42.8k, with the top relevant category in this market being the Fed rate, generating a net profit of $22.8k. Out of 36 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 28/36 (78%), with 8 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.7), the median of historical investment amounts is $690, making this investment 62 times that median.

gaven-willwin has invested $197k, with the top relevant category in this market also being the Fed rate, achieving a net profit of $103k. Out of 5 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 5/5 (100%), with 2 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95.

During the July meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with a vote of 9-3, where three officials advocated for a 25 basis point hike. The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 15th–16th and will also update economic projections and the dot plot.

In an unexpected turn, the US non-farm payrolls for July decreased by 23k, significantly below the market anticipation of an 80k increase, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%. Following the data release, rate futures indicate a significant cooling in the market's bet on a September rate hike.

At 20:30 Beijing time today, the US will release the July CPI data, with the general market expectation of a 3.4% year-on-year increase in overall CPI and a 2.5% year-on-year increase in core CPI. This data directly reflects changes in residents' daily consumption costs and is considered the most crucial inflation indicator before the September FOMC meeting.
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