The Senate Locked In a September 15th Schedule Vote, Trump Block Smart Money Predicts Clarity Act to Become Law This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, two clever investors have put in $42.8k on the outcome of "Will the 'Clarity Act' be signed into law in 2026" with an average buy-in probability of 22.3%. The current probability of "yes" stands at 20.5%.

Tenebrus7 has invested $3.3k, with the top-related market category being Trump, with a net profit of $78.7k. Out of 1720 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1210/1720 (70%), with 326 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median historical investment amount is $158, and this investment is 20.8 times that median.

ImJustKen has invested $39.5k, with the top-related market category being Trump, with a net profit of $1.5M. Out of 3325 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 1548/3325 (47%), with 517 trades where the buy-in price was less than $0.8 and the sell-out price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $298, and this investment is 132.3 times that median.

The House passed H.R. 3633 by a vote of 294–134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a modified version by a vote of 15–9 in May of this year. The bill aims to clarify the legal classification of digital assets and delineate regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune submitted a motion to end debate on August 8. The Senate is set to adjourn on September 14, with the motion scheduled for a vote at 2:15 on September 15. The Senate needs 60 votes to formally begin consideration of the bill. Once procedural votes are passed, lawmakers will still need to address amendments and conduct a final passage vote.

The current negotiations involve government officials' stakes in crypto assets, stablecoin reward rules, and illicit fund monitoring. Seven Democratic senators participating in the talks are calling for strengthened ethical rules and consumer protection provisions. The White House is pushing for the bill's passage and has indicated that a senior presidential advisor will recommend Trump sign H.R. 3633. After the Senate amends the text, the House must also approve the same version.

Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of events but engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening positions at certain points.

Accounts:
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344

Total Investment: $42.8k
---------------------------------
See the future earlier, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN