Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The rejection of the Clarity Act is a one-time shock to prices and a sustained suppression of valuations.

September 16 — Huobi HTX chief analyst Cloud said that after the Clarity Act was blocked in a Senate procedural vote, Bitcoin fell from around $77,800 to $74,910. This round of selling pressure is event-driven, and similar shocks have historically been digested within 5 to 10 trading days. The real cost of the bill's failure falls on time: Congress is in recess this month, the midterm elections are in November, and the legislative window has effectively been pushed to 2027, delaying institutional incremental businesses such as bank custody, brokerage distribution, and tokenized securities by a full year. What this layer of suppression targets is valuation; the price-level reaction is one-off.

Among the factors affecting the single-day decline, the bill accounts for about 60% to 70%, while macro accounts for 30% to 40%; on the scale of the entire correction, the ratio reverses to 70% macro and 30% bill. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield standing above 5.005%, oil prices surging to $105, and expectations of rate hikes heating up again constitute the main pricing thread this week, and the bill merely gave an already accumulated wave of selling pressure a push. The bill is the fuse, but interest rates are the explosive.

Coinbase fell 10% and Circle fell 11%, significantly more than Bitcoin's decline, indicating that the market does not believe the bill's failure damaged Bitcoin's store-of-value properties, with ETF flows and institutional allocation still providing support. What is under pressure is the legislative premium of compliance-oriented businesses: much of the excess gains in crypto stocks over the past few months was a bet on the jump in trading volume, institutional custody, and stablecoin adoption after the bill passed, and that premium has now been liquidated. Crypto stocks are essentially high-duration, high-leverage derivatives of Bitcoin; a 3% move in Bitcoin, amplified layer by layer through trading volume, fee rates, and reserve income, ultimately shows up as a 10% drop in share prices.

It is worth noting that the SEC already proposed in August an exemption for unregistered offerings of up to $75 million, the CFTC has approved the launch of the first batch of Bitcoin perpetual contracts, and Coinbase has also clearly stated that it looks forward to the two regulators filling the gap under their existing authority. If administrative pathways are implemented intensively, this batch of unjustly sold-off crypto stocks will have greater rebound elasticity than Bitcoin.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.