Is the probability of Musk truly supporting an AI slowdown only 9%?

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the new market "Musk signs the 'Controlling the Pace of Frontier AI Development' statement this month," which was launched yesterday, is currently 8.5%.

The "Controlling the Pace of Frontier AI Development" statement calls on the U.S. government to promote international collaboration and establish technical and governance tools in advance, so that the pace can be proactively slowed if the speed of automated AI R&D spirals out of control. The statement currently has 1,386 signatures from employees of frontier AI companies.

On September 12, after Anthropic CEO Dario published the article "We Must Control the Pace of Frontier AI Development," Musk reposted it and said, "Dario is right," publicly endorsing the narrative of "controlling the pace of AI R&D."

However, two days later, Musk publicly promoted Grok and also said Grok 5 "may be stronger than anything." When asked how far Grok 4.8 is from AGI, he directly responded: "That (AGI) will be Grok 5."