Anthropic's $2T IPO Shock: Smart Money Builds Post-Listing Valuation Trigger Structures

According to PolyBeats monitoring, DancewithRisk placed $1.7k on "No" in "Will Anthropic reach a (HIGH) $2.5T valuation within the year?", with an average entry probability of 48.3%. The current "Yes" probability is 54.5%.

DancewithRisk invested $1.7k, and the best-correlated sector for this market is Finance, where the sector net profit is $3.3k. Its win rate across 115 settled trades in this sector is 87/115 (76%), of which 2 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost price range ($0.401-$0.55), its historical median investment amount is $166.

This account bought "Yes" across multiple ranges covering $1.2t-$2.5t for Anthropic's first-day listing valuation, while simultaneously predicting that the valuation will not touch $2.5t within the year, and holds "Yes" positions on Anthropic listing in October and November. Overall, it leans toward a listing materializing within the next two months and limited upside for the valuation within the year.

Anthropic is seeking to raise up to $100b at a valuation of approximately $2t, with Nvidia considering investing up to $10b as an anchor investor, and the specific arrangements are still under negotiation. On the 3rd, the company is expected to post positive adjusted operating profit for a second consecutive quarter. However, this metric excludes expenses such as stock-based compensation, and its gross margin of over 80% also has not yet deducted channel revenue-sharing and model training costs.

On-chain trading has also priced it close to $2t. A Coin Metrics study on the 15th showed that pre-IPO perpetual contracts for Anthropic across multiple exchanges imply a valuation of about $2.1t; on Hyperliquid, the Entropy market has averaged about $10.22m in daily volume over the past two weeks, with open interest of about $30.63m. This is close to the $2t-$2.25t range held by this account.