Bitunix Analyst: Global Economic Resilience Under Test — High Rates and Supply Risk Shape Asset Allocation

October 19 — The core contradiction in global markets lies in the fact that the economy still has growth momentum, but the financing costs, energy inputs, and fiscal spending required to sustain that growth are rising in tandem. The U.S. fiscal year 2026 deficit reached $1.992 trillion, with debt interest payments rising to $1.36 trillion; although overseas holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased in market value by more than $83 billion at the end of August, demand for short-term Treasury bills weakened, indicating that foreign allocation is not a comprehensive return. As the government must continue to borrow new to repay old, the risk premium the market demands on long-term debt will directly affect global funding costs.

AI investment presents a similar two-sided picture. Economists are broadly optimistic about AI's productivity potential over the next decade, but Bank of America estimates that the weighted average cost of capital for hyperscalers has risen from 4% in 2023 to approximately 10%, and some data center projects are also facing delays and financing challenges. If AI investment begins to cool, corporate financing demand may decrease, and U.S. Treasuries could regain their safe-haven function; but if high capital expenditure persists while revenue fails to keep pace, tech companies and related credit markets will face stricter return scrutiny.

Energy and political risks add another layer of uncertainty. Street protests in France reflect that pressures from fuel, housing, and living costs are translating into political risk; the IEA's accelerated release of remaining emergency oil reserves still cannot guarantee a rapid recovery of supply chains. The copper market is likewise affected by U.S. tariff policy and strikes at Chilean mines, indicating that energy and industrial raw material supplies may still constrain the decline in inflation.

For the crypto market, U.S. Treasury yields, dollar liquidity, and risk appetite will matter more than any single event. If high-yield dollar assets continue to attract capital, risk assets such as BTC may face allocation competition; if AI investment slows and triggers safe-haven flows that drive capital back into government bonds, short-term deleveraging of risk assets may still occur first. What the market truly needs to confirm is whether financing costs are beginning to suppress economic demand, and whether high interest rates can be sustained without triggering greater financial stress.