Republican 'safe seat' in jeopardy: Nearly 70% chance of losing Texas stronghold

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 19, the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs released a poll showing Democratic candidate Talarico leading Republican candidate Paxton 48% to 46% in the Texas U.S. Senate election. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Democrats winning the Texas U.S. Senate election" is 65%.

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3 According to CNBC, since September, Republican outside groups have invested more than $175M to support Paxton; a spokesperson for Musk's America PAC confirmed that Musk donated $10M to a super PAC supporting Paxton. On October 18, a CBS/YouGov poll showed Talarico leading 51% to 49%, and CBS described the race as "essentially tied."

Texas was originally regarded as a safe Republican seat. According to CNBC, the last time Democrats won a statewide election in Texas was 1994, and the last time they won a Texas U.S. Senate election was 1988. For Democrats to flip the Senate, they need to pick up seats beyond the traditional swing states, and Texas is one of the few red states where they have a chance; if Republicans lose Texas, they will need to make up for that gap in other states.