Texas turns fully blue, with the governor's election won by a Democrat for the first time in 31 years.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, as of publication, the probability of "Democrats win the Texas governor's race" on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to 98.2%. One day before the election, this figure was only about 36.5%. On the same day, the probability of "Democrats win the Kansas governor's race" also rose from 35% to 90%.

Since George W. Bush took office in 1995, the Texas governorship has been held by Republicans for about 31 years. In pre-election polls, Abbott still held a slight advantage: the Capitol Inside final week average showed Abbott at 49.3% and Democratic candidate Hinojosa at 48.1%.

After vote counting began, the situation reversed. According to Associated Press data compiled by Exa, about 58% of votes in Texas have been counted, with Hinojosa receiving 3.413 million votes, or 55.8%; Abbott received 2.620 million votes, or 42.9%, trailing by about 792,000 votes, or about 12.9 percentage points.

As of publication, the probability of "Democrats win the Texas governor's race" on the prediction market Polymarket has risen to 98.2%. One day before the election, this figure was only about 36.5%. On the same day, the probability of "Democrats win the Kansas governor's race" also rose from 35% to 90%.

Since George W. Bush took office in 1995, the Texas governorship has been held by Republicans for about 31 years. In pre-election polls, Abbott still held a slight advantage: the Capitol Inside final week average showed Abbott at 49.3% and Democratic candidate Hinojosa at 48.1%.
After vote counting began, the situation reversed. According to Associated Press data compiled by Exa, about 58% of votes in Texas have been counted, with Hinojosa receiving 3.413 million votes, or 55.8%; Abbott received 2.620 million votes, or 42.9%, trailing by about 792,000 votes, or about 12.9 percentage points.

Flipadelphia bought $2.9k "Yes" on "Democrats win the Kansas governor's race" and bought $4.1k "No" on "Republicans win the Kansas governor's race." This account's win rate across 645 markets traded in the election sector is 83.2%, with PnL +$755.2k and ROI +8.6%. This trade's input was 0.21 times its average input in this sector.