The New York Times reported that Trump will resume strikes on Iran, and multiple suspicious accounts have appeared in prediction markets regarding the Iran-Israel conflict topic.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on November 3, The New York Times, citing U.S. officials, reported that U.S. Central Command has prepared plans for a new round of strikes against Iran, which could be launched as early as the day after the U.S. midterm elections, that is, November 4 local time. During the night of November 2 to 3, the United States carried out limited strikes around Iran's Qeshm Island. This strike led to the settlement of a batch of "Will the U.S.-Iran ceasefire last until ___" markets on Polymarket, and multiple accounts profited several times over.

Among the accounts that profited in that market, 4 subsequently made predictions again in related markets on "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire last until November ___?":

Sofiamas put $7.6k on "No" in "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire last until November 4/5," after previously profiting $10.5k (+750%) in "The U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last."
maayan0141 put $473 on "No" in "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire last until November 5," after previously profiting $2.0k (+1330%) in "The U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last."
Egolod1 put $1.3k on "No" in "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire last until November 7," after previously profiting $1.87k (+400%) in "The U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last."
itamarBenGvir put $5.4k on "No" in "Will the Israel-Iran ceasefire last until November 15," after previously profiting $7.95k (+127%) in "The U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last."

On October 21, The New York Times disclosed that the U.S. and Israeli militaries had drafted a "short and intense" re-strike plan for after the midterm elections. A follow-up report on November 3 further stated that multiple aircraft carriers had already been assembled in the region, and Gulf allies were reportedly asked to prepare for possible strikes after November 4.

On the other side, the diplomatic track has not stopped. Qatar said mediation is continuing and both sides are reviewing the mediation proposal; Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other officials insist on negotiating according to the "seven-point plan" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the U.S. port blockade, with the nuclear issue left to the second phase. On the Israeli side, multiple regional officials and media reports said that Netanyahu is urging Trump to resume large-scale action against Iran after the midterms, and some have linked this to Israel's domestic political situation.