The probability of Anthropic announcing an IPO before December has dropped to 57%, down from nearly 90% previously.

November 6, according to CNBC, on the prediction market Kalshi, the probability of Anthropic announcing an IPO before December 1 has dropped from nearly 90% to 57% over the past week; the probability of announcing an IPO before January 1, 2027, has also fallen from over 88% to 68%. The relevant contracts bet on the timing of the company's official IPO announcement, with results verified by news media reports.

Anthropic confidentially submitted its IPO prospectus to the U.S. SEC in June this year. The recent downward revision in prediction probabilities occurred after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and multiple key state governorships, and AI-related stocks suffered a sell-off. Investors are concerned that data center construction may slow, reducing the appeal of AI investments.

Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa advocated stricter management measures on data center expansion during her campaign. She defeated three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott and said in a CNN interview on Thursday: "We will enact laws to protect Texans, and until these protections are in place, we need to halt the current data center work."

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite closed Thursday more than 10% below its recent high, entering technical correction territory. As of reporting on Friday, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and both Nvidia and Micron rose about 4%, but the relevant stocks still recorded significant declines over the past week.