Bitcoin gained 43% in the third quarter, with high government bond yields capping its gains.

On Oct 6, according to Cointelegraph data, Bitcoin (BTC) posted a 43% gain in Q3, marking its best quarterly performance since 2017, and secured a third consecutive week of gains last week. However, crypto research platform Delphi Digital notes that this "slow climb" is encountering significant real-world resistance.

The resistance primarily stems from U.S. Treasury yields climbing to multi-decade highs above 5%. Delphi's analysis indicates that when risk-free bonds provide such attractive returns, every category of risk asset must demonstrate greater value to attract capital, making further upside for assets like Bitcoin increasingly difficult.

However, as U.S. economic data softens, the interest rate environment may turn. Reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 in September, well below the anticipated 80,000. This weak data rapidly shifted market expectations, with CME Group's FedWatch tool quickly reflecting a sharp drop in the odds of an October rate hike from over 75% a week ago to approximately 24%.