Bank of America: ASML Earnings Forecast Raised 13%, 5% Price Hike Boosts Earnings by 8%

Citing Chaowang Research, Bank of America's October 6, 2026 research report raises its CY28E earnings per share (EPS) forecast for ASML by 13% to EUR 85.2 and increases the revenue forecast by 8.7% to EUR 76.57 billion. The target price is raised from EUR 2,452 to EUR 2,557, and the ADR target price from USD 2,845 to USD 2,915, while maintaining a Buy rating and top-pick status.

Bank of America estimates that for every 5% increase in ASML's average selling price (ASP) alongside a 2.5% rise in input costs, EPS would increase by 8%. BofA expects the price hikes to begin impacting the income statement by the end of 2027, noting that non-China revenue will be sufficient to offset the shortfall as China's revenue share drops to 15%. Downside risks include delays in EUV mass production, China export restrictions, and a slowdown in semiconductor capital expenditures.