Bernstein: SpaceX Buys Spectrum, Low-Band Cuts Sites by 30%, Benefiting Tower Companies

That according to Chaoxiang Research, Bernstein’s October 8, 2026 research note states that SpaceX has reached a definitive agreement to acquire an 800MHz spectrum portfolio from Grain Management. Low-frequency spectrum can reduce the demand for ground network macro sites by approximately 30%. Greenfield deployment costs range from $50 billion to $130 billion including spectrum, and from $15 billion to $80 billion excluding spectrum, corresponding to approximately 30,000 to 120,000 macro sites. Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating for American Tower and Crown Castle International, a Market Perform rating for SBA Communications, and an Outperform rating for SpaceX, with target prices of $214, $96, $219, and $248, respectively.

Bernstein believes this transaction makes SpaceX’s terrestrial deployment option more credible, weakening the narrative that cell towers will become obsolete in the direct-to-device era, thereby providing a catalyst for tower valuations. The construction bottleneck lies in build-out capacity, with the United States adding only 1,200 to 2,000 new towers annually; the model assumes expansion relies on existing infrastructure. Bernstein favors a scenario where SpaceX’s mobile business ultimately pursues a partnership-driven strategy.