The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by the end of December stands at 94.3%.

Latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool on October 14 shows that market expectations for the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in October have risen from 22.1% a day ago to 52.9%. However, given that the Fed may avoid hiking rates before the midterm elections, this probability may still be suppressed. Market expectations for December are more noteworthy. Currently, the market assigns a 94.3% probability to at least one rate hike by year-end. Among these, the probability of the Fed cumulatively raising rates by 50 basis points has reached 42%, doubling the figure from a day ago. (Jin10)