1kX Report: Blockchain Revenue Expected to Drop 28% Year-on-Year in 2026, Real Economy Revenue Surpasses Infrastructure for the First Time

On October 30 that crypto investment firm 1kx released its annual report "1kx Blockchain Revenue Report 2026" on October 29. The report projects that blockchain industry revenue will decline by 28% year-over-year in 2026, reaching approximately $99 billion. Revenue in 2025 was approximately $138 billion, nearing the historical peak of around $145 billion in 2021. This decline roughly aligns with the approximately 30% drop in crypto asset prices. Calculated as a percentage of total crypto market capitalization, the revenue level remains largely stable.

Based on on-chain data from 2,621 protocols and financial statements from 104 publicly listed companies, the report annualizes data from January to September 2026. Within this breakdown, DeFi and financial services accounted for approximately $65 billion, representing 66%. In the third quarter, revenue sourced from the real economy reached approximately $5.3 billion, surpassing the approximately $5.1 billion generated by blockchain infrastructure for the first time. Prediction market fees exceeded $1.5 billion, roughly 19 times that of the same period last year, mainly concentrated in Kalshi and Polymarket. RWA perpetual contracts accounted for 18% of total perpetual contract trading volume, with 55% consisting of tokenized stocks. The revenue contribution from publicly listed companies rose from 7% in 2022 to 16%, with Coinbase and Circle being the primary contributors.

1kx expects blockchain revenue to rebound over the next several quarters, driven by regulatory tailwinds, asset tokenization, and a shift in market sentiment. The token index returns presented in the report are backtested data and do not reflect actual performance. 1kx disclosed that it may hold equity interests in the projects covered in the report.