The esports division's smart money, after a one-day loss of $2 million, went all in on the Dota 2 TI group stage. Currently sitting on an 85% unrealized loss.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market, half an hour ago, a smart money entered $343.4k on the "Dota 2: Team Liquid vs. Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner" market, backing "Vici Gaming," with an average buy-in probability of 37.7%. Currently, the probability for "Vici Gaming" is 18.5%.

Another user, Djdjdjekekek, invested $343k, and the most relevant category in this market is gaming, with a net profit of $560k. Out of their 132 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 60/132 (45%), with 55 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was over $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301-$0.45), the median of their historical investment amounts is $36.2k.

As of yesterday, this account's total profit exceeded $2 million, with a single-day drawdown of over 90% of its historical profit.

This market settles only the winner of Game 1 between Team Liquid and Vici Gaming in The International 2026 group stage BO3, not the outcome of the entire match. If Game 1 is not completed, the market will settle at 50-50.

Pre-match public data leans more towards Team Liquid. GosuGamers indicates that this BO3 will start on August 13 at 14:00 Beijing time, with Team Liquid ranked 6th in the world and Vici Gaming ranked 14th. Pre-match data from Strafe also shows that Team Liquid has won 4 out of the last 5 matches, while Vici Gaming has won 2 out of the last 5.

However, Vici Gaming's Game 1 logic does not solely rely on the overall win rate. Pre-match data from DLTV shows that Team Liquid has a recent win rate of 55%, while Vici Gaming has 49%, indicating a moderate difference. GGScore's player matchup data also reveals that Vici Gaming has higher hero pool indicators in some core positions, such as Shiro and Xm, compared to their counterparts miCKe and Nisha. For a single-game market, factors like draft picks, early game fights, the first 10-minute pace, and hero pool diversity restraint may be more critical than the overall BO3 stability.
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