Wall Street's hedging tool? Warsh says 'good afternoon' probability only 6%.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, the Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC press conference in a few hours. On Polymarket, the probability of Warsh saying "Good Afternoon" is only 6%, while the probability of him saying "Good Day" is 91%.

"Good afternoon" was more like a fixed opening line for FOMC press conferences during the Powell era. Various versions have circulated online: saying Good afternoon means hawkish, and stocks will fall; saying Hello everyone means dovish, and stocks will rise. There is an even more mystical version claiming that Wall Street uses AI to read lips, judging within 0.3 seconds whether his lips are forming a "g" or an "h" to place orders.

But Warsh's two press conferences since taking office—on June 17 and July 29—both opened with "Good day"; he himself has consistently emphasized that the Fed needs a "regime/style change," so the opening line may be one of the factors shaping his "new brand."