Gemini 4 Argon remains partner-only, with new accounts expected to transition to public within a week.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account sugard has established 6 positions related to the release date of Gemini's new model, investing a total of approximately $3.21k, narrowing the expected release timeframe to October 13 to 16.

Based on the settlement structure of four Gemini 4.0 positions, if the model is publicly released between October 13 and 15, the combined settlement profit would be approximately +$1.07k; if released on October 16, it could still yield about +$936.5. If the model is released earlier before the 12th, or delayed beyond the 16th, the combined positions would incur losses.

Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on September 30, but on that day it was only opened to trusted cybersecurity testers in the Fairwind program, while also participating in the U.S. government's voluntary pre-release access process. Officials stated that access will be expanded "as soon as possible" after collecting early feedback and adjusting safety guardrails, with paid API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers gaining access priority over ordinary consumers.