Brazil's presidential election sees a reversal, with smart money on the election broadcast in August showing a floating profit of 230%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on August 4, the channel reported that Nicklashark13 predicted Flávio would be elected President of Brazil, buying in at a probability of 26.1%, with a position size of $21.5k, which is 5.5 times their usual position size ($3.9k). Currently, Flávio's election probability has risen to 86%, and Nicklashark13's position is now up 230%.

From late August to early October, Flávio's election probability had been slowly rising. For about a month after early August, multiple long-term polls placed the two within the margin of error: AtlasIntel/Bloomberg's second round shifted from Lula leading by several points to Flávio leading numerically at 46.4% to Lula's 46.2%.

On October 4, Flávio's election probability surged, completely pulling away from incumbent President Lula: TSE results showed Flávio (PL) received approximately 47.03% of valid votes (about 56.1 million votes), while Lula (PT) received approximately 45.16% (about 53.88 million votes). Neither surpassed 50%, leading to a second round on October 25. Polls after the second round began mostly showed Flávio still slightly leading Lula in valid votes (approximately 51%–52% vs. approximately 48%–49%).