Arthur Hayes reveals the logic behind this round of altcoin selection, emphasizing that the ultimate goal of trading altcoins is to accumulate more Bitcoin.

October 17 - Arthur Hayes, in a recent interview with The Rollup, expressed disappointment with the overall performance of altcoins over the past few years, noting that most new projects are overvalued with hidden risks. He emphasized that his current fund strategy is to use altcoin trading to accumulate more Bitcoin, rather than treating trading itself as the goal. Arthur Hayes also shared his logic for selecting altcoins:

1. Specifically looking for "busted charts": tokens that have fallen 75%-80% from their local highs. He believes such targets can achieve about 5x returns within a few months while carrying lower capital risk.

2. Completely avoiding new coin issuances: high FDV (fully diluted valuation), low circulating supply, and a large number of pre-sale investor unlocks bring excessive hidden risks.

3. Preferring projects that have survived since the 2020 DeFi Summer, because their valuations already reflect real usage rather than pure narrative hype.

4. Barbell portfolio strategy: one end is hard money/scarce assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Zcash); the other end is on-chain business protocols with real cash flow and buyback plans (benefiting from gradual U.S. regulatory acceptance).