JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will achieve an annualized return of 10% over the next decade, potentially outperforming US stocks, US bonds, and gold.

October 20 - JPMorgan Chase, in its "2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report released on Tuesday, set specific return forecasts for Bitcoin for the first time, projecting an annualized return rate of 10% under the baseline scenario over the next decade, 17% under the bullish scenario, and -9.7% under the bearish scenario.

In comparison, JPMorgan expects annualized returns of 7.5% and 7.7% for U.S. large-cap and small-cap stocks, respectively, over the next decade, 5.6% to 6.6% for U.S. bonds, and 5.5% for gold. According to the bank's forecasts, Bitcoin's baseline return rate will be higher than those of the aforementioned traditional assets.

However, JPMorgan remains cautious about Bitcoin's role in investment portfolios. The bank noted that Bitcoin's high volatility and unstable correlation with other assets remain obstacles to its widespread inclusion in portfolios. JPMorgan does not view Bitcoin as a reliable portfolio diversification tool, but rather positions it as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.

The bank's digital asset strategy team believes that Bitcoin primarily manifests as a high-beta risk asset correlated with global money supply growth, and is sometimes regarded as "digital gold." Its fundamentals lack support from traditional cash flows, and future performance will also be affected by factors such as market adoption rates, regulatory environment, and liquidity.