Trump's approval rating hits a new low; Chinese addresses heavily bet on Republicans winning both the Senate and the House.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 19, Reuters reported that 31% of Americans approve of Trump's presidential performance, while about 65% disapprove, marking the lowest point for this series of surveys during his two terms.

Currently, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Republicans winning both the Senate and the House" is only 8.5%. xixingxiaoqi is the third-largest holder of "Yes" in this market, with a total investment of $24.7k and a potential maximum return of over 12 times.

In recent related polls, about 33% of adults approve and about 66% disapprove; about 37% of registered voters approve. Fox News reported about 36% approval among registered voters from October 9–12, which the series says is a new low for Trump's second term. NBC News, aggregating through about October 18, shows an average approval of about 38% and disapproval of about 60%. The Reuters report frames gasoline prices and economic anxiety amid the Iran conflict as the direct backdrop for voters punishing the ruling party.

Historically, when a president's approval rating falls into the 30s, the ruling party often loses seats in midterms, and the narrative that "Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump early" is now gaining traction. Reuters, reviewing 62 races, said 41 candidates are trying to put distance between themselves and the White House in voting records, campaign materials, or public statements: 12 removed Trump's name, image, or endorsement from their official websites; more avoid appearing on the same stage, or refuse to answer whether they would invite him (Trump) to campaign for them.

Online discussion of this narrative currently holds that most Republicans in marginal districts do not publicly "unfollow" Trump, but instead delete official websites, share fewer stages, vote against him on Iran war powers and immigration enforcement, or run ads drawing distinctions—first serving independent voters, then hoping Trump himself will energize the base. Strategic adviser Jeanette Hoffman told Reuters that candidates want to benefit from the administration's achievements while also needing distance because of "how toxic the Trump brand is at this moment."