U.S. stocks weakening may drag down Bitcoin demand, spot ETF single-day net inflow hits a one-month high.

October 20: Bitcoin fell about 1% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum dropped 1.4%, as weakness in Asian stock markets and rising oil prices intensified market pressure. QCP Capital analysts warned that if U.S. stocks continue to decline and trigger broader deleveraging, risks could transmit to the crypto market, and Bitcoin's $80,000 support level may face a test.

On capital flows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $526.6 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest in a month. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw about $665.2 million in single-day net inflows, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025; Fidelity and Grayscale-related products saw outflows. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETFs had net outflows of $103.3 million, the fourth consecutive trading day of outflows, indicating recent buying has been concentrated in Bitcoin rather than the broader crypto market.

Macro conditions remain under pressure: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.13%, Brent crude oil is near $110 per barrel, and rising energy prices are exacerbating inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged next week, but prediction markets have priced in a 25 basis point rate hike next month. QCP noted that if U.S. Treasuries continue to rise, real yields fall, and the dollar weakens, this could provide support for risk assets; conversely, if the U.S. stock selloff continues, Bitcoin's $80,000 mark will become a key level to watch.