Market buzzes over potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, analysts estimate $480 per share.

October 21 — On the earnings call following SpaceX's better-than-expected Q3 financial report, Elon Musk for the first time formally confirmed that both Tesla and SpaceX have established special committees composed of independent directors to explore the possibility of a merger between the two companies at shareholders' request.

Musk stated that he cannot participate in the discussions due to a conflict of interest, but made clear he believes a merger "is a good idea," citing significant synergies between the two companies in areas such as superintelligence, chip manufacturing (Terafab), robotics, and Starlink connectivity. However, he emphasized that a deal is not inevitable, the committees have not reached any terms, and Tesla would need support from 50% of all shares — a high threshold.

Market reaction was positive: SpaceX surged about 8% after hours, while Tesla also rose slightly. Wall Street analysts generally see a high long-term probability.

Dan Ives (Yorkville Ives) puts the probability of a merger by the end of 2027 at 80%–90%, viewing it as a natural outcome of AI and data strategy and the right path for Musk to expand control. The committees are evaluating deal value and pricing, and he sees this as a "golden vision" — integrating Tesla's robotics/autonomous driving with SpaceX's compute and connectivity under one entity, potentially creating the world's largest company.

Barclays' Dan Levy believes a merger has gradually become a consensus expectation, more likely structured as SpaceX acquiring Tesla in an all-stock deal. Vertical integration would accelerate progress in AI, robotics, and chips for both sides while giving Musk higher voting power. He previously mentioned that progress could emerge around Tesla's annual shareholder meeting (expected in early December).

RBC Capital Markets' Tom Narayan provided specific figures: assuming an acquisition at approximately $480 per share, Tesla shareholders would receive a premium of about 30% and share in SpaceX's long-term growth, holding roughly 48% of the combined company. He emphasized Terafab's potential to lower chip costs and the combination of robotics with AI infrastructure, while noting that SpaceX's rising valuation has already changed the equity distribution structure. CFRA's Garrett Nelson and others also believe there is a high probability of "Elon Inc." integration, with the key being offering Tesla shareholders a sufficiently attractive premium.

Prediction markets show the probability of an announcement before the end of 2026 remains low, but rises significantly by 2027. Analysts note that the two companies already have a practical foundation for cooperation, but valuation, shareholder approval, and regulatory hurdles remain key obstacles. Tesla will release its own Q3 financial report today, and the market will closely watch whether Musk further comments on related developments.