Analyst: This round of gains stems from the exhaustion of selling pressure rather than new capital inflow, but relevant indicators still suggest that we are in the early stages of a bull market.

October 28 - Crypto market analyst Crypto Mommy, citing CryptoQuant data, pointed out that Bitcoin's Realized Cap has resumed an upward trend after several months of correction. Data shows that the metric has climbed from $1.057 trillion to $1.088 trillion, an increase of approximately $31 billion (a 2.9% gain). The analyst believes this is typically a good sign, as historically rebounds in this metric have marked the early stages of bull market cycles.

Realized Cap assesses the network's overall cost basis by calculating the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain. A rise in this metric typically represents an inflow of new capital. However, the analyst also noted that during the recent period, Bitcoin's price rose from $69,000 to $80,000, a gain of as much as 16%, far exceeding the 2.9% growth rate of its cost basis. This divergence suggests that the recent price increase is more attributable to existing holders' reluctance to sell than to large-scale external new capital inflows.

The analyst also warned that a rising Realized Cap cannot serve as an absolute guarantee of price appreciation, as at the market top in late 2025, the metric also rose alongside profit-taking distribution by long-term holders. To confirm whether the market is entering a healthier phase, the analyst suggests investors focus on two core signals going forward: first, whether Realized Cap can maintain sustained expansion; second, whether Bitcoin's price can successfully hold onto recent gains as capital flows in.