Kalshi: Trading volume for US midterm election-related markets exceeds $2.5 billion, roughly double that of the 2024 election cycle

November 8 — Prediction market platform Kalshi released a review of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, stating that cumulative trading volume in related markets exceeded $2.5 billion, higher than the $1.3 billion in the 2024 election cycle. According to platform statistics, as of 6:00 AM Eastern Time on November 4, among 487 races with determined results, the candidate favored by the market won in 479, accounting for approximately 98%.

Kalshi stated that before Election Day, the market had already leaned toward Democratic control of both the Senate and House as well as a majority of governorships, and in most elections led television networks by several hours in reflecting results. At 8:10 PM Eastern Time on November 3, the market probability of Democratic control of the House reached 99%; at 9:00 PM, the probability of controlling the Senate surpassed 99%.

However, the platform also noted that although traders had previously leaned toward Democrats winning more than 230 House seats and more than 51 Senate seats, they did not fully price in scenarios of a larger-scale victory. Based on the assessment at the time the review was published, Democrats could potentially win more than 250 House seats and more than 56 Senate seats, with some key races still undecided at that time.

Kalshi also plans to continue expanding international election markets and has begun building a dedicated section for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, covering markets on candidates, Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, and the ultimate winner.