Kalshi and Polymarket Prediction Market Traders 'Hit the Streets' to Survey US Voters, Racing for an Information Edge on the Midterms

November 3: According to Bloomberg, as the US midterm elections approach, a group of veteran traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are seeking trading edges through offline "street canvassing" field visits and voter data analysis. Among them: former Democratic National Committee (DNC) economics professor and election model analyst Douglas Campbell, who goes by the username AlexanderHam on Kalshi and has accumulated more than $800,000 in profits, ranking sixth among the platform's election traders by profit; another trader, David Bensoussan, is mainly active on Polymarket, where under the username Scottilicious he has accumulated more than $1.5 million in profits, with a position of more than $280,000 betting that Democrats win the House, an outcome whose market probability has now risen to about 94%.

Analysis suggests that some traders seeking information advantages through on-the-ground research has already raised concerns about information asymmetry and insider trading, and Polymarket this week has opened an investigation into suspicious trading during the Israeli election period.