SemiAnalysis: If AMD's Stock Price Rises to $600 to $700, Meta and OpenAI's GPU Capital Costs Could Drop to Zero

August 4th. Semiconductor and AI independent research firm SemiAnalysis published an article stating that AMD reached agreements with Meta and OpenAI at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, providing the two companies with performance-based warrants. The related warrants will be attributed based on the progress of purchasing and deploying up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, and will also depend on whether AMD's stock price can surpass multiple thresholds, with the highest threshold being $600.

AMD's stock price has risen from about $200 at the beginning of 2026 to currently around $500 to $600. Assuming that the stock price-related warrants show roughly linear changes in attribution and the full 6GW capacity is deployed, Meta and OpenAI's hourly capital costs per GPU will decrease from around $2.15 and $2.50 to around $1.60 and $1.75, respectively.

SemiAnalysis stated that if AMD's stock price rises to the $600 to $700 range, the capital costs for the two companies solely related to GPUs may effectively drop to zero. If AMD continues to enhance its software stack, secure more orders from large customers, and drives the stock price to above $1000, then the entire cluster's capital costs, including server equipment, networking, and CPUs, theoretically could also decrease to near zero.