US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002, Bitcoin faces dual signals.

October 3 — The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficit spending and persistent inflation. U.S. CPI has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target for 60 consecutive months, the longest stretch since the 1980s.

U.S. wealth distribution is currently highly concentrated, with the net worth of the wealthiest 1% of American households totaling about $60.3 trillion, 14.3 times that of the bottom 50% of households; since 2020, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has fallen by 23%.

The rise in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to a 24-year high poses direct pressure on Bitcoin, as higher discount rates may compress the valuation of non-yielding assets. On the other hand, persistent inflation and the decline in the dollar's purchasing power may reinforce the logic of Bitcoin as a hard asset and inflation hedge.

The market is currently facing two conflicting signals at the same time. In the short term, the key question is whether support for BTC from inflation and a weakening dollar, or suppression of risk assets from rising long-end U.S. Treasury yields, will dominate.