【4 Days Until Midterm Elections】Trump Rallies Support in South Carolina, Account with 100% Win Rate Bets on Democratic Victory

According to PolyBeats monitoring, with 4 days left until the November 3 midterm elections, the South Carolina Senate seat long considered a safe Republican hold has become competitive. On October 29, Trump held a rally in North Charleston to campaign for Republican candidate Darlene Graham. He told voters in the crowd, "Just pretend I'm on the ballot." He also acknowledged that although Graham is leading, "I still had to come — with politics, you never know."

As of October 30, the Polymarket market "Republican wins South Carolina Senate election" stood at a 73.5% probability, down 13 percentage points over the past month. A New York Times/Siena College survey conducted October 19-26 showed the two parties tied at 48-48 among likely voters.

balerinacapuchina bought $6.7k on "Democrats win." The account has a 100% win rate across 10 prediction-type trades in the US election section, with PnL +$10.0k and ROI +33.8%. This position is about 2.25 times its average position size in that section.

According to local outlet FITSNews, Trump reiterated at the rally that if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate, every American would receive $5k. After the rally, Trump canceled his rally schedule for the weekend. Vice President Vance likewise canceled a Friday trip to St. Cloud, Minnesota, to announce a "crackdown on fraud" operation; the local federal prosecutor's office did not explain why.

Public speculation suggests the canceled trips may be related to the Iran situation, but no official has confirmed such a connection. According to The Wall Street Journal, senior US military officials have briefed Trump on multiple options, including resuming large-scale combat operations, and Gulf states have also been told to prepare for a "short and sharp" operation after the November 3 vote, but the White House has not made a final decision. Meanwhile, Vance, acting on Trump's instructions, sent a letter to Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei of Iran proposing a negotiating framework.