Democrats win a Texas Senate seat for the first time in 38 years; Nasdaq futures fall over 2%.

November 4 — According to the latest data, in the election for the U.S. federal Senate seat in Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican candidate Ken Paxton by a wide margin of 11 percentage points.

Although the full vote count has not yet concluded, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) has declared Talarico the winner, marking the first time Democrats have won a Texas federal Senate seat since 1988.

According to Predict.fun data, the win probability of Democratic candidate James Talarico on mainstream prediction market platforms has reached 100%.

CNBC, citing analysts' judgments, pointed out that the scenario most worrying to the market is "Talarico winning the Senate seat while Hinojosa defeats Abbott to win the governorship" — such a combination would significantly amplify the negative implications for AI trades. Although incumbent Republican Governor Abbott suspended data center permits in September, analysts widely expect him to lift the ban after re-election, while Hinojosa is expected to maintain or even strengthen restrictions.

Wells Fargo estimates that about 27% of the nation's AI data center gigawatt capacity is concentrated in Texas. Texas, with its relaxed regulatory environment, abundant energy, and tax incentives, has become a core destination for AI infrastructure expansion. Once Texas's policy direction reverses, its symbolic significance and the impact on actual capital expenditure will both extend beyond the state's borders.

Possibly affected by this bearish news, U.S. Dow Jones futures fell 1.24%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.18%.